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What to Expect This Hurricane Season

Hurricane season kicks off on June 1. And this year, all the experts agree—at least so far—that we’re likely to have a below-normal season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a near- or below-normal hurricane season this year. It predicts only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season, with a 70 percent chance of eight to 13 named storms and three to six hurricanes, with one to two of those becoming major hurricanes.

The Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University is also a predicting a year of below-average activity. It cites a cooler tropical Atlantic and the likelihood of an El Nino of moderate strength as contributors to the lower probability for major hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. and Caribbean. concurs, saying that, according to its long-range forecasting team, this should be a below-normal hurricane season.

However, all of these organizations stress that the prediction of a quieter hurricane season doesn’t mean people living in hurricane-prone areas shouldn’t take all the proper precautions. It does mean, however, that anyone traveling to such a destination has a better chance of an uninterrupted vacation.

The official hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity tending to fall in September.

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